As highlighted by both national and international media, a severe winter weather disaster — phenomenon known as a ‘dzud’ — during the 2023-2024 winter has presented unprecedented challenges for the people of Mongolia. Wildlife is also experiencing dzud, however much less information is available on impact and trends. Recent reports by Mongolia’s Emergency Management Agency indicate the loss of over 5.2 million livestock animals by March 25th, 2024, rising from 2.6 million reported on February 26th. It is expected that the peak of livestock mortality will continue until April. These losses include sheep, goats, horses, camels, and cows, all of which are vital for the livelihoods and way of life of pastoralists in Mongolia.
This Situation Update provides a summary of recent developments concerning the dzud situation impacting both people and wildlife. We focus on geographic areas where the WCS Mongolia team primarily supports partners. It also looks at wildlife conservation in the context of the dzud and our team's initial responses.
Figure 1: Picture capturing the snowy landscapes of the South Gobi region in January 2024. Photo by KH. Gantumur
What is the dzud situation across Mongolia?
This year, Mongolia is facing an unprecedented challenge characterized by nationwide snowfall that was reported to be double the long-term average. This substantial snow accumulation, reaching up to 90% coverage of the country in January, has intensified the dual challenge of a 'White' and 'Iron' dzud acting together. The 'White' dzud brings deep snow that impedes the movement of both livestock and wildlife, while the 'Iron' dzud exacerbates the situation with a severe freeze that encases pasturelands in ice. As of March 2024, an estimated 50% of the country remains covered in snow reflecting the ongoing crisis.
In historical terms, the number of extreme cold outbreak events has increased in the last two decades by almost a third compared to the 1980-1990 period. Winter precipitation is estimated to have increased by 40% since 1961. The change in frequency and intensity are directly attributed to global climate change and interacting socioeconomic factors. This marks the second consecutive year where the country has faced severe conditions, with approximately 70% of the country affected last winter.
According to the Mongolia’s National Emergency Management Centre, this year's crisis is anticipated to be much harsher than the severe 2023 dzud. It predicts an impact surpassing that of the significant 2010 dzud event, which resulted in the loss of 10.3 million livestock and affected 28% of Mongolia's population. The crisis disproportionately affects pastoralists with smaller herds, who face substantial recovery costs and challenges.
Read more about the situation overview in recent UN report ‘Mongolia: 2024 Dzud Early Action & Response Plan’.
How is the current dzud impacting both livestock and wildlife in certain focal areas for WCS Mongolia?
The intensity of dzud is unevenly distributed across Mongolia's vast landscape. However the Government of Mongolia reports that approximately 90 per cent of Mongolia's territory are categorized as facing high or extreme dzud risk.
Figure 2: A deceased Mongolian gazelle found in the snow in Omnogovi, January 2024. Photo by KH. Gantumur.
Particularly hard-hit regions, such as the Eastern Steppe, have faced the brunt of both white and iron dzud conditions. Two aimags (provinces), Sukhbaatar and Khentii, from this area have undergone, as of March 25th, livestock losses of 1.4 million and 720,000 respectively.
In the South Gobi aimags, our long-term partners in Dornogovi report heavy snowfall which has led to significant livestock losses. According to reports from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPTA) of the aimag, spanning January and February 2024, approximately 400,000 livestock have perished. Additionally, wildlife populations have suffered, with documented losses of at least 500 Mongolian gazelles and 10 argali. Urgun, Erdene, Ikhkhet, Dalanjargalan, and Sainkhand have emerged as the hardest-hit soums (districts).
Figure 3: Mongolian gazelles photographed in Dornogovi aimag, Mongolia, in January 2024. Photo by WCS Mongolia.
Dornogovi aimag has launched a campaign to aid herders by providing essential materials and equipment. In addition, the EPTA states that carcass disposal efforts are underway with the assistance of an emergency team comprising veterinary support, the emergency agency, and local government. Specifically related to wildlife the EPTA has distributed at least 1200 bundles of hay to wildlife in the most affected soums, following the protocols set out by the Ministry of Environment and Tourism.
Figure 4: The image on the left depicts the EPTA of Dornogovi aimag disposing of livestock carcasses. The image on the right illustrates the response of distributing hay for wildlife. Photos by EPTA.
Our team recently visited other partners of Nomgon Soum in the South Gobi, who reported that their district had been less impacted by dzud compared to neighbouring areas, with 1% of livestock dying so far out of the 100,000. However, pastoralist groups reported that summers were becoming even drier, with fewer suitable pastures and water sources. Combined with the dzud phenomenon, this poses a threat to pastoral ways of life and potentially exacerbates conflicts between livestock herders and wild ungulates sharing pastures.
“Unfortunately, Mongolia is extremely vulnerable to climate change and it appears to be intensifying in frequency and intensity. Very little information is available on the impact on wildlife. We need to better understand and be ready for the consequences on people and wildlife.” shared Otgonsuren Avirmed, WCS Mongolia’s Climate Change and Monitoring Manager.
The impact of this year’s dzud on the South Gobi Khulan population remains uncertain, and our team, along with partners, plans to continue monitoring the situation in the long term. However, their nomadic movements and ability to find pastures and water is increasingly limited by the growth of linear infrastructure and poorly planned developments. This is putting them at further risk of decreasing their ability to survive and adapt to severe climatic events, such as dzud.
“Over the last two years, a large number of Khulan have been attempting to move eastward of the Trans-Mongolian Railway, which is considered their historical range, in search of better pastures to cope with severe climatic conditions in the South Gobi. Additionally, our team has noted that two collared khulan have perished in the last two months during this extreme event. Therefore, opening gaps in the railway is necessary as part of the long-term dzud response,” shared Buuveibaatar Bayarbaatar, WCS Mongolia’s Senior Scientist.
Figure 5: Khulans captured on camera in Dornogovi aimag amidst the snow, January 2024. Photo by WCS Mongolia.
What actions is WCS Mongolia taking in the context of dzud?
WCS Mongolia's response to the dzud includes both short- and longer-term approaches, both guided by WCS Mongolia’s vision to maintain and restore Mongolia’s ecological integrity for the well-being of both wildlife and people. This vision can be applied to responding to the dzud as well as ongoing conservation efforts.
In the short term, our team will work to gather information on how key species were impacted by this year's dzud. Currently, limited information is available regarding the status of wildlife and the immediate impact of the dzud on various species in the South Gobi and Eastern Steppe. To address this, our team, in collaboration with 10 partners of the MORE STEP Consortium, will support a country-level assessment focusing on the status of Mongolian gazelles across its entire range in May 2024. Given the extensive scope of this survey, it will gather valuable information related to the status of other key ungulate species (such as goitered gazelle, Khulans, etc.).
Additionally, WCS Mongolia, along with partners, will continue to assist government agencies and protected area staff in conducting monthly patrols to collect data on species detections and other potential insights regarding threats. Long-term monitoring of key species remains a central goal of our work, providing critical information to inform conservation actions and strategies, which will be further reinforced in the coming years. Furthermore, our team has reached out to partners in critical regions, standing prepared to assist in ongoing immediate response efforts as needed.
Figure 6: The harsh winter this year has been a particular challenge for pastoralists. A livestock herder with his goats and sheep in Dornogovi aimag, Mongolia. Photo by WCS Mongolia.
In the longer term, our approach to ecosystem integrity aims to maintain and strengthen the resilience and capacity of ecosystems while considering human, wildlife, and environmental interactions within them. This includes focusing on building the resilience of ecosystems to withstand and recover from dzud events. It also promotes practices that reduce the risk of exacerbating environmental degradation or biodiversity loss. Along with building a monitoring system and better understanding of dzud dynamics on wildlife and conservation. This includes ongoing efforts to promote the functional connectivity of key nomadic ungulates including the Khulan, Mongolian gazelle, and goitered gazelle along with protected area network governance.
As part of this and in line with our programs developing strategy for 2024-2030, WCS Mongolia is prioritizing building climate adaptation capacity for wildlife and people. This includes partnering with South Gobi communities to enhance local strategies for adapting to climate change and severe shocks. Sustainable water management initiatives hold particular promise. This year, our team is focusing on water resource management for communities and wildlife to mitigate future climate-related shocks. Our team, along with partners, will be supporting the Ministry of Environment and Tourism with their Action Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change in Mongolia (2021-2030).
"Wild ungulate population ranges of Mongolia, such as khulans and Mongolian gazelles, are largely found outside protected areas. This highlights how partnering with local communities and stakeholders is essential for ensuring the conservation of wildlife across these multi-use landscapes, and is a central pillar to our conservation work, including during dzuds," shares Bolortsetseg Sanjaa, WCS Mongolia Conservation Governance and Community Manager.
We recognize the current hardships faced by partner pastoral communities and the hard work, especially of our local partners, in responding to the current dzud situation. Our conservation actions will be sensitive and supportive as possible to these ongoing challenges.
Resources on the evolving situation:
Other Related news sources:
Special thanks to our partners for supporting our climate adaptation strategy, Cartier for Nature. We also acknowledge the wider support of Eco Police Agency, Environmental Protection and Tourism Agency of Dornogovi, Environmental Protection and Tourism Agency of Omnogovi, Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Ministry of Justice and Home Affairs/Crime Prevention and Coordination Council in Mongolia, Ministry of Road and Transport Development, Oyu Tolgoi LLC, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Sustainability East Asia LLC, and Ulaanbaatar Railway Authority.
Written by WCS Mongolia