Montreal October 22-24 2008, Conference presentations
October 22 Justina Ray, 2C1Forestand Science based Conservation - A Overview of Phase1 Accomplishments PowerPoint Format Luc Vescovi, Challenges of Climate Change to Biodiversity Conservation in North America PowerPoint Format Stephen Trombulak, Going Beyond Global Averages, What’s to come for the local climate - and us - in the Northern Appalachian/Acadian Corridor PowerPoint Format Mar Anderson & Rose Paul, Adapting to Climate Change: Why Place Matters, Ensuring Ecological Resiliency PowerPoint Format Jerry Jenkins, Climate Change and Forest Management PDF Format Gillian Woolmer, 2C1Forest Phase 2 work plan PowerPoint Format
October 23 Paul Marangelo, Green Mountains to Adirondacks Habitat Linkages (Wide Ranging Mammals) PowerPoint Format Dirk Bryant, Black River Valley Connectivity Project PowerPoint Format Louise Gratton, Northen Greens Linkage Area PowerPoint Format Roberta Clowater, Restigouche River Watershed Connection PowerPoint Format Don Floyd, Forest Management Challenges and Opportunities in the MaritimesPDF Format
October 24 John Kart & Phil Huffman, Collaborating Across Borders to advance Connectivity Work and Finding money to pay for it PowerPoint Format Sherman Boates, The Ecological trends and Status, Two Countries, ONE forest PowerPoint Format
Mark Anderson, Ph.D. Director of Conservation Science for the Eastern Region of the Nature Conservancy; co-author of the National Vegetation Classification
Abstract A Resilient Conservation Portfolio for the Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion: Conserving Ecological Features in a Changing Climate
From alpine summits to extensive bogs to coastal shorelines—what are the features that give the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion its distinctive stamp? Where are the most important places to protect? How can we design a conservation network that maintains resiliency in the face of climate change? I use a grand tour of the ecoregion to highlight five basic principles used by the U.S. Nature Conservancy and Nature Conservancy of Canada in developing a portfolio of critical places. First, anchor the portfolio in ecosystems examples of sufficient size and quality. Second, represent vital environmental settings and physical gradients. Third, distribute risk across many geographically- dispersed replicates of each target. Fourth, maintain ecoregional- scale processes and prevent the isolation of targets, and fifth, implement strategies that protect the whole portfolio.
Robert F. Baldwin, Ph.D. Research Scientist at Two Countries, One Forest; on faculty at Clemson University and Antioch University New England
Abstract Threats to the Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion
Threats to the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion can be broadly grouped as affecting terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems. The sources of threats are human activity influencing land use/land cover change, point and non-point source runoff to and disruption of aquatic ecosystems, and airborne pollutants from local, regional, and continental sources. Land cover/land use change is the basis for most global environmental problems, and 2C1Forest research has focused on measuring threats due to land use change. We have found that while nearly half (46%) of the ecoregion is at a 20% or less level of threat, threats are pervasive even in the most remote areas and large forested tracts are surrounded by areas of dense settlement, a trend that is likely to increase significantly in the future. Current threat levels are largely accounted for by human settlement, and our projections of future changes include increased suburban sprawl, exurban growth in settled areas, and new nodes of development inside high-amenity areas, especially where wilderness is accessible to urban populations and landowners are willing to sell. Land use transitions include shifts away from agriculture and industrial forestry toward increasing residential use. We predict a doubling of the area vulnerable to new, residential roads and expect more than 1,000 km2 of pristine lakeshores vulnerable to development. Global market conditions have rendered much of the forest products industry unstable in this region. Changes in ownership patterns lead to unsustainable harvests, and new industrial and recreational uses, not all of them environmentally sound. Combined, these land use changes threaten the integrity of the Northern Appalachian/Acadian landscape. In particular, large tracts of forestland in the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains, Gaspé Peninsula, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, and Northern Maine are facing ecological isolation. Fragmentation on this scale will affect movements of plant and animal populations, and make the region less resilient to climate change.
Karen Beazley, Ph.D. Director and Associate Professor at the School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University; on the Boards of the Canadian Council on Ecological Areas, Science and Management of Protected Areas Association, and Two Countries, One Forest
Abstract Importance: Wide-ranging Species of the Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion
Importance values for wide-ranging species were determined on the basis of habitat for wolf, lynx and marten. These focal carnivores are considered threatened or extirpated in portions of the region, but differ in their habitat requirements and reasons for their decline. Carnivores play important “top-down” regulatory roles, are often good indicators of habitat security, and may function as umbrella species for conservation planning purposes. Source and threatened source habitat were identified by Carlos Carroll (2003, 2005) through comprehensive analyses of their habitat, population viability and conservation needs. Population viability analyses help us understand where high-value habitats are located, how large they need to be, and where movement linkages are needed. They can also model future landscape change scenarios (climate change, logging, residential development). Carroll developed regional-scale models that relate GIS habitat data to fecundity and survival rates for these species in differing habitats. He incorporated these static habitat models into a spatially explicit population model called PATCH. The model combined a landscape map describing the locations of suitable and unsuitable habitat patches, and a population model incorporating habitat-specific demography and detailed dispersal behavior. The model yielded predictions on probable source habitats (where births exceed deaths) and sinks (where deaths exceed births) under given scenarios, and provided insight into connectivity among sources. Three source habitats (the most expansive for each species) delineated by Carroll through these processes were selected and incorporated into 2C1Forest analyses: (1) wolf source habitat under current landscape conditions; (2) marten base scenario prediction of source habitat with trapping; and (3) lynx base scenario prediction of source habitat with no population cycling. These source habitats were included as conservation features in the MARXAN-based importance analysis.
Justina Ray, Ph.D. Senior Scientist and Executive Director of Wildlife Conservation Society Canada; Founding Board member of Two Countries, One Forest
Abstract Prioritizing Conservation Action in the Northern Appalachian/Acadian Ecoregion
Since 2004, a consortium of conservation scientists from throughout the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion have been collaborating under the umbrella of Two Countries, One Forest (2C1Forest) to produce a scientifically valid systematic conservation plan for the region. The goal of this work is to use the most objective data available on the distribution of key ecological features to identify the areas of the highest conservation priority within the ecoregion. Areas were assessed based on their relative ecological importance (irreplaceability) as well as the threat they face now and in the future to transformation and loss. Our approach for evaluating ecological importance incorporated a three-track strategy: ecological representation, focal species habitat, and rare species. We combined this with forecasts of threats from human activity from the current and future Human Footprint analyses to objectively assess current and future threats to the region. In an analysis modeled after work in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem by Noss et al. (2002), conservation areas delineated on the basis of both watersheds and ecological land units were simultaneously assessed for levels of ecological importance and threat and plotted on an x-y axis. The position of each planning unit (e.g., high threat/low importance; low threat/high importance) was used as an indication of urgency or opportunity in ordering conservation priorities. By employing a systematic, data-driven, spatially and temporally sensitive planning approach, we seek to inform and support decision making occurring at multiple scales within and across the eight states and provinces.